By Thomas
J. Tierney
Reprinted
with permission, copyright 200, The Bridgespan Group. www.bridgespan.org,
Those
of us close to the sector appreciate all too well the importance
of building, nurturing, and retaining strong leadership teams. We
understand, as Jim Collins noted in the February issue of Leadership
Matters, that having the right people in the right roles in
nonprofit organizations is critical to achieving social impact-and
to having a well-functioning society.
Most
would believe, and financial realities often dictate, that money
is the resource in shortest supply; certainly government funding
for social programs has decreased. Studies have shown that fund-raising
occupies senior leaders more than almost any other activity. I know
I need not convince you of this.
Although
each of us has our own opinions as to where and how philanthropic
dollars should be distributed, the fact is that, in total, contributions
to U.S. nonprofits continue to climb. Americans continue to recognize
the need to support nonprofit organizations, and we have dug deep
to support our religious, cultural, social, and community institutions
as well as organizations coping with disasters worldwide. Moreover,
during the next decades, $6 trillion or more is likely to flow into
the nonprofit sector, as boomers transfer their wealth to their
children.
In
addition, the sector itself is growing. The total number of nonprofit
organizations has tripled over the past two decades. The number
of organizations with revenues exceeding $250,000 has increased
from 62,800 to 104,700 in the nine years from 1995 to 2004-an annual
growth rate close to six percent. Almost 100 new nonprofits are
formed each day.
This
growth reflects many dynamics, including people's desire to contribute
to society and the increasing transfer of responsibility from the
government sector to nonprofits serving the public good. At the
same time, another essential resource to the nonprofit sector is
dwindling.
Last
week, at the Grantmakers for Effective Organizations national conference
in Atlanta, Georgia, I had the privilege of sharing "The Nonprofit
Sector's Leadership Deficit," a Bridgespan Group white paper
inspired in part by Bridgestar's work. We found that in 2006, U.S.
nonprofits with revenues greater than $250,000* will need to add
more than 56,000 new senior managers to their existing ranks. Cumulatively,
over the decade from 2007 to 2016, they will need to attract and
develop some 640,000 new senior leaders-or the equivalent of 2.4
times the number currently employed. Even if the sector were to
experience significant consolidation and lower-than-forecast turnover
rates, this number would likely fall only as low as 330,000. On
the other hand, given historic trends, the total need could well
increase to more than one million new senior leaders! Independent
of financial resources, our sector is confronting a serious leadership
resource shortfall.
The
causes for this imminent crisis are complex. The growth of the sector
plays a critical role, to be sure. Demographics are also key: The
oldest of the baby boomers are just turning 60 and are preparing
to step down from leadership positions in both the private and public
sectors. Other studies indicate that in so-called normal times,
an estimated 10 to 12 percent of U.S. nonprofits are experiencing
leadership transitions. But now the annual retirement rate could
climb by 15 percent or more by 2010. Who will step up into these
roles?
The
story told by demographics isn't exactly encouraging, because a
much smaller cohort stands behind the baby boomers. From 2000 to
2020, the number of men and women ages 34 to 54 will grow by only
three million. Moreover, very few nonprofits have the resources
(or, as one colleague noted, the luxury) to develop leaders internally.
Rather, as they have in the past, most will attempt to find solutions
through personal networks. Many will be unsuccessful, however, especially
as they find that existing networks are hard-pressed to surface
candidates with the new skills and perspectives their organizations
need. And the new needs are highly likely to occur, as government
and donors increasingly call for greater accountability and enhanced
results.
The
scale of the sector's leadership crisis dwarfs any single organization's
ability to respond. There are three difficult but critical imperatives
that all of us must help to address: